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FT.com / Lex / Technology, media & telecoms - Slowdown at SAP

Slowdown at SAP
Published: April 30 2008 09:38 | Last updated: April 30 2008 19:22

The prospect of implementing an SAP program for the first time tends to bring managers out in a sweat. Investors anticipating the software company’s results have learnt to feel the same way. On Wednesday SAP shares dropped 3 per cent after its first-quarter numbers missed expectations.

Sales of new licences, which contribute about half of sales, were weak. Because these should generate follow-up maintenance contracts, they are a good signal about future growth. The Americas were particularly weak: excluding the impact of recently acquired Business Objects, licence sales fell almost 10 per cent year on year. An exceptional first-quarter performance in 2007 does offer some mitigation but a tougher market fits the darkening picture painted by US competitor Oracle at the end of March. It is taking longer for software customers to sign contracts and deal sizes are down.

SAP has stuck confidently to full-year guidance for overall sales growth (excluding Business Objects) of 12 per cent to 14 per cent. With the first quarter at the bottom of the range, that looks optimistic. SAP sells software with claimed strategic benefits for businesses, which provides some protection from the cycle. But, if the economic outlook worsens, SAP will feel the impact of sweeping cuts to capital expenditure budgets.

The group has another problem in that it still largely relies on selling software to big companies. SAP is targeting smaller businesses with its first foray into an online, on-demand service called Business ByDesign. But the move is proving harder than expected. SAP had hoped to have 10,000 mid-market customers by 2010 but it is, by its own admission, 12 to 18 months behind target. The roll-out has been reduced to just six countries this year. It makes sense to proceed slowly in order to get the product right but continued difficulties in this competitive segment will raise concerns over SAP’s long-term growth prospects.

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